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Market Summary - Wednesday 16th of January 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Where last week the trade was optimistic in the absence of any solid data, this week we’re sliding into bearish territory and futures values slipped lower again overnight. The AUD remains at 0.72 this morning.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Mar 19 (H)

511.00

-3.25

$260.67

-1.48

495.50

-3.50

562.00

-3.50

May 19 (K)

516.00

-3.75

$263.22

-1.73

506.75

-3.50

566.75

-3.50

July 19 (N)

520.50

-4.00

$265.52

-1.85

517.00

-2.75

573.75

-3.50

Sept 19 (U)

529.00

-3.75

$269.85

-1.72

529.50

-2.75

580.75

-3.75

 

  • The US government doesn’t appear to be reopening any time soon and the lack of data is starting to weigh on demand ideas, especially around Chinese demand.  
  • Soft wheat exports from the EU continue to lag amid competition from Russia. So far this season EU exports are 26% lower than this time last year.
  • Russian wheat exports between the 1st and 9th of January totaled 222,000mt, the lowest weekly amount in 18 months.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Mar 19 (H)

371.25

-7.25

May 19 (K)

379.75

-7.25

July 19 (N)

387.50

-7.25

Sept 19 (U)

391.50

-6.50

 

  • The lack of data confirming a sale to China combined with a US representative saying no progress has been made on key issues of trade saw corn values drop.
  • Weekly ethanol report due out tomorrow – margins are still in the red.
  • Funds put on their selling boots and sold 15k of contracts which put further downward pressure on corn values.

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Mar 19 (H)

893.25

-10.25

475.80

-3.90

Feb 19   (G)

368.75

-0.50

May 19 (K)

906.75

-10.50

484.00

-4.10

May 19 (K)

369.50

+3.75

July 19 (N)

916.60

-11.40

491.40

-4.60

August 19 (Q)

365.50

+0.50

 

  • Negative comments from the US about Chinese trade negotiations saw beans plummet overnight. The fact that we won’t be seeing a quick resolution brings the extremely large ending stocks issue to the forefront of everyone’s mind.
  • ASF has led to the cull of over 916,000 pigs in China since the first outbreak in August 2018 Chinese officials announced yesterday.  
  • December crush margins came in at a record high, although this will do little to support values in the current climate.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7202

-0.0006

AUDCAD

0.9555

-0.0011

AUDEUR

0.6312

+0.0005

CRUDE (H)

52.39

+1.59

 

  • The AUD traded a fairly narrow range overnight night between 0.7180 and 0.7225.
  • As expected, the UK parliament rejected Theresa May’s Brexit proposal, which could lead to a possible second referendum on the matter.
  • China has announced the implementation of further stimulus measures intended to combat the economic slowdown that is negatively impacting the country’s vast manufacturing and trade sectors. This should be supportive of the AUD.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WK9 - WH9

5.00

-0.50

KWH9 - WH9

-15.50

-0.25

MWH9 - WH9

51.00

-0.25

WN9 - WH9

9.50

-0.75

KWK9 - WK9

-9.25

+0.25

MWK9 - WK9

50.75

+0.25

WU9 - WH9

9.50

-0.75

KWN9 - WN9

-3.50

+1.25

MWN9 - WN9

53.25

+0.50

WH9 - CH9

139.75

+4.00

KWH9 - CH9

124.25

+3.75

MWH9 - CH9

190.75

+3.75

 

Have a great day!

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